Aztec pride

The San Diego State University basketball team, a perennial winner, was picked by the conference to finish fourth in the Mountain West this year. Nevada Sports Net's Chris Murray picked them seventh.

Really? I winced when I saw that, they have one of the greatest win percentages in the NCAA the last decade and were in the Sweet Sixteen the last two years, reaching the finals two years ago.

The rest of the Mountain West is jealous, always trying to bury the Aztecs and all the team does is win. They are currently ranked 23 or 24 in the nation, the only Mountain West school in the ranking, depending on which poll you are looking at. This year they are winning with a team of mostly freshmen and sophomores, many of last year's players flocking to greener pasture$.

Thanks to some very good friends, I have been to five games already this year. So much fun! Lots of energy. If you have never been, go.

The Aztecs are now 7-2, having lost to two great schools, Oregon and Gonzaga, currently ranked #12 and #9 respectively.  But note that the Aztecs have beaten Houston, which was ranked #1 or 2 and Creighton, which I believe was ranked #21 at the time. The Aztecs have the sixteenth toughest strength of schedule in the nation.

Rest of the conference? Unranked right now. Of course, with one notable exception, the conference stunk up the big dance last year.

What bugs me are the predictive polls, like KenPom or Bart Torvik. They bury the Aztecs. And it doesn't make any logical sense at all. Same deal with ESPN's BPI. All blowing the same smoke up Houston's gym shorts. And you need a Master's degree to grok the current NET rankings, don't even go there.

Here's KenPom.

And here is Bart Torvik.

Sorry about the small print. You see the Aztecs are buried so far down that you can't see them without a microscope, at #56.

Take a look at where Houston, a 6 and 3 team that the Aztecs beat like a drum, is positioned in the two polls, #4 and #1 respectively.

7 and 3 Creighton? #40 and 32.

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Try as I might, I can not understand the logic of predictive polls. 

What was the famous saying by Al Davis, "Just win baby?" 

No more. 

Now you have to beat a team by a certain margin more than the computer estimated that you would.

Stupid. What is the value in that? What am I missing?

A win is a win.

Aztecs beat Houston by three. Creighton by eighteen. Yet both teams outrank them in the current predictive polls.

Scoreboard.

A four and four Arizona team in no way deserves to outrank an undefeated Utah St. team, who look to be very good and dangerous this year. Kansas is beaten by Creighton, a team ranked twenty nine slots beneath them in the KenPom. What gives?

As we all know, there is a heavy east coast bias in basketball and sports rankings in general. The people that vote are in bed and don't see our games. They favor bluebloods even when they are getting their ass kicked.

And every year Brian Dutcher and the Aztecs show them that they are idiots, that hard work and defense trumps one and done and stupid NIL packages. They have only failed to get into the tourney twice in the Dutcher era and have been to the big dance 12 times since 2006.

Miles Byrd

I have no idea where they will actually finish this year.

The team has some nifty guard play but rebounding is a concern and the starting low posts nimble but not really bangers. 

Heide is finally starting to play with confidence. Byrd and Boyd are outstanding. Compton quite a finisher. Gwath can be great one game and then utterly disappear. 

I predict that they will get better and better and be a factor once again when March comes along. When all is said and done they will be where they always are and the rest of the Mountain West will be looking up at them. 

 Predictive polls be damned.