Politics and demographics

Those of you interested in doing a deep dive into both politics and the nature of identity politics and ethnicity will enjoy reading this article by longtime republican political operative Mike Madrid. 

Titled Nobody in politics is able to say it; the truth about Latino Voters, the article is eye opening. It shows that the hispanic bloc is not monolithic and illustrates how demographics change as more and more generations of immigrant children get farther and farther removed from the parent country.

And that money is always the issue.

In an interview for the Playbook Deep Dive podcast, Madrid talked about his new book, The Latino Century, and laid out a breadcrumb trail for both Republicans and Democrats to win this decisive block of voters, who he believes are very much up for grabs this year.

In fact, the biggest problem with courting Latinos might be that politicians think of them strictly as an ethnic group in the first place.

“Minority voters are voting much more along economic class lines than they are as a race and ethnic voter,” Madrid said. “The party that is able to capture the hearts and minds of a multiethnic working class will be the dominant party of the next generation.”

And further:

So all we have to do is wait until the non-white population exceeds a certain number in places like Texas and Florida, and those states are going to turn blue. And of course, that didn’t happen.

I was there in the early 2000s saying, that’s not what’s going to happen, because it assumes ethnicity is static. It assumes racial construct is static. It assumes culture is static. But as we know, everything else doesn’t stay constant. The height of immigration in this country from Latin America was the year 2007. The political difference between a first- and second-generation Latino is a pretty big leap. The step from a second- to a third-generation Latino is tectonic. And so over the last ten years, we started to see dramatic growth in third- and now a discernible fourth-generation Latino voter. And so you will hear a lot of pollsters and pundits who watch this say the problem is with US-born Hispanic males. And it is. This is this rightward shift that is happening and it’s not happening incrementally. It’s exploding. This is the number that’s growing really fast at the time when the recently naturalized share of the vote is shrinking, it’s collapsing dramatically. Spanish speakers are diminishing. So who Latino voters are in Arizona, Nevada, even in North Carolina, certainly California, Texas, Florida — those are very, very different Latino voters.

Finally:

Latinos, U.S.-born Hispanic men specifically, are not going to college at rates faster than any other race or ethnic group. Those with college degrees are increasingly Asian and white in this country. Those without are Black and brown. The white share of the blue collar workforce is shrinking dramatically, as is the voter base. And minority voters are voting much more along economic class lines than they are as a race and ethnic voter. The party that is able to capture the hearts and minds of a multiethnic working class will be the dominant party of the next generation. The Democrats have had a real problem with the working class piece as the diploma divide has consolidated college-educated voters into their ranks. And what has happened as college-educated people have become more aligned with the Democratic Party is they’ve become a less diverse party.

The exact opposite is happening with the Republican Party and again, most of this is for cultural, educational and economic reasons, not racial reasons. And the Democratic Party’s whole heterodoxy is premised on the idea that if you’re nonwhite, you are needing the party and the government’s intervention to help you to either right past wrongs or assist you with a government program to help you economically. 

This line of thought is sobering and should be a wake up call.  It is obvious that the future of our country depends on the working class. Old identity politics will not work nearly as well in the new paradigm where divergent communities and voters are most concerned with their economic well being above all else.

I can only hope that other important matters like the environment, health and reproductive freedom are not shunted aside in the quest for the almighty dollar.