War Games

If you are far from the enemy, make him believe you are near.

Sun Tzu

There is an intriguing article in today's Los Angeles Times about a recent study published online in the MIT International Review by UCLA Biogeographer Thomas Gillespie, concerning the probable whereabouts of Osama Bin Laden. Link to the article here. Gillespie and his team of students postulate that Bin Laden is hiding in one of three buildings in the northwestern Pakistani city of Parachinar.

The researchers based their study on several geographic principles that have been used to chart and predict wildlife distribution.  The first is called distance decay theory, which states that as a person or animal moves away from it's home habitat, the probability of finding a compatible environment decreases exponentially.  

The second principle is known as island biogeographic theory, which states that the subject will find the largest, closest area to fulfill it's needs.  The class used some first class sleuthing techniques to form it's hypothesis, looking for buildings that had electricity to run his dialysis equipment and provide sufficient space for his coterie.  They are confident he is not living in a cave.

I started rereading Clausewitz, Sun Tzu and Mushashi's Book of Five Rings this morning, all pillars of war strategy.  I seem to recall latin revolutionaries hiding out in big cities in the early sixties.  Makes a lot of sense.  Probably much easier to get lost in an urban environment. Interesting to see if their work hits close to the mark.  Maybe he's in Cleveland?

Read the actual study here and an excellent refutation by a Toronto professor who chides them on their lack of perspective regarding the sociological realities of the region.  I was really impressed by their work and hope that you can look at the PDF with it's excellent graphics and well considered science.